November 9th – keep your diaries free

“If I do not cut the fares on or by October 7th I will resign the office of Mayor immediately and cause a by-election.”

So promised Ken Livingstone earlier this week.

Would he really?

My hunch is we’ll never know.

Despite Ken’s current lead in the polls most days I still expect Boris to win in May, though his bribe of £3.10 suggests he’s less certain than he used to be.

But what if Ken does get in and then fails to deliver his cut?

Assuming he kept his promise to resign, the 1999 Greater London Authority Act requires the Greater London Returning Officer to hold an election “no later than 35 days after” Livingstone quit City Hall.

Thirty five days from October 7th is Sunday 11th November, hardly an appropriate day for Londoners to queue at the polls.

So the latest we could expect to cast our votes at 2012’s second Mayoral election is, by my calculations, November 9th.

It’ll be chilly so you’ll want to wrap up warm for your trip to the polling station.

Update: London Elects advise me that the cost of a Mayoral by-election “would be approximately £12million”, though it cautions this is a ballpark figure which would depend on a number of factors, including if there were other elections in London on the day.