Unless there’s a surprise candidate waiting to enter the race – currently comprising just Livingstone and former MP Oona King – it’s difficult to see Livingstone not ending up as Labour’s candidate.
That however is the easy part.
Unlike a council or Parliamentary election there are no shades of winning or losing the job of Mayor of London and in 2008 Livingstone unambiguously lost. Voters rejected not only the policies he offered for a third term but also those he’d already implemented during his 8 years in office which they no longer found attractive.
We don’t yet know whether Boris Johnson will run for a second term – personally I wouldn’t shocked if he didn’t – but in many ways it’s an irrelevance because to be a credible candidate in 2012 the Livingstone campaign has to about what he offers London, not a series of negative attacks on Johnson and his record or a ‘back to the future’ commitment to undo changes implemented by his successor.
Neither can Team Ken rely on Johnson’s popularity being dented by the national Conservative party – the unchartered waters of coalition mean no-one knows how the public may reward or punish the two parties now in Government.
Besides, as Livingstone’s own people never tire of pointing out, in 2008 he outpolled Labour in many areas and there’s no reason to assume Johnson’s own personal vote will desert him because of the actions of a Government he has no part in.
In 2000 Livingstone caught the public mood by defining himself against Blair and New Labour’s dogmatic PPP scheme, even in 2004 that helped him secure re-election but Labour may finally be about to bury the Blair/Brown era and, thanks to Johnson, the sun will soon set on PPP.
To have any chance of being heard by those who rejected him in 2008, Livingstone must use the weeks and months ahead to show he understands the future challenges facing London and set out a compelling response to them.
Dre Pearce says
June 1, 2010 at 6:21 pmI think Ken Livingstone back as London mayor has to be the most frightening prospect. Personally I don’t think there are too many in London stupid enough to vote for him. I wasn’t a fan of Boris Johnson before he became mayor but he is an excellent mayor and needs to stay on for two more terms.
Ben Newton says
June 6, 2010 at 12:23 amI agree with Dre Pearce, Ken Livingstone should not be elected as London 2012 mayor. He doesn’t listen to Londoner’s opinions, e.g congestion charge extension. Without trying to sound age-ist, is he not getting a bit too old to be running at city? In 2012 he will be 66, which for every other job is around retirement age.
He can promise public transport fair cuts, but in truth it wont happen. The streets will be even more congested then they are currently.
Boris has done a fantastic job so far, and I would happily vote for him again.
Tim says
June 15, 2010 at 10:33 pmBoris is an excellent Mayor?! He hasn’t done anything! Name one thing he has done that wasn’t a project started by Ken.
In fact there is one, just one: banning booze on the tube. Does that amount to a record in office?
As for the congestion charge extension, Ken does represent Londoners in that most are in favour of it. Out of interest, what precisely would you have done to sort out London’s congestion problems when businesses were threatening to leave town because it had become so bad? Unless you have a better solution, you have no right to criticize the congestion charge.