In less than a year Boris Johnson has tuned an 8 point lead over Ken Livingstone into a 2 point deficit.
Could it, much like his bike scheme, the novelty has simply worn off of Mayor Boris?
Or maybe, as some supports have been busy tweeting, there’s just a general air of complacency about Team Boris?
Last night even Tory Assembly Member Andrew Boff, not someone you would normally call a tribal loyalist, predicted “Boris will walk it.”
He may yet do. But first his campaign need to work out how they’ve lost an 8 point lead over a man he defeated four years ago.
My free, and likely to be ignored advice, is that they’ve failed to tell us what a second term Johnson administration would look like. Instead they’ve allowed Livingstone and his fares policy to own the ‘change’ agenda.
In the absence of a ‘big idea’ from Boris, Londoners have had plenty of time to listen to the other side and, seemingly, liked what they’ve heard.
Sadly instead of an invigorating vision for post 2012 London, what the poll is likely to provoke is a further ratcheting up of the negativity that politicians seem to think voters love.