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Current polling would see UKIP return to the London Assembly

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At the 2000 London Assembly elections, UKIP attracted just under 2% of the London-wide ‘list’ vote.

Four years later, when City Hall elections coincided with the Euro elections, they gained a further 6% and two seats on the Assembly.

Their time on the Assembly was short lived as I’ve recounted before, but their election proved that an openly Eurosceptic message plays well with enough Londoners to gain seats.

Fast forward another four years to 2008 when Europe wasn’t part of the election discussion and they lost their seats.

But the issue of Europe, and the UK’s relationship with it, is now ever present in the news cycle and, as others have noted, UKIP are now polling just behind the Liberal Democrats at national level.

Until a couple of days ago the party was doing less well in London, appealing to just 4% of voters.

But things seem to be looking up for Nigel Farage’s crew – yesterday’s YouGov tracker gave them 7% in the capital, likely to be enough for at least one seat around the Assembly table next May.

Comments

  1. Very interesting. National (and regional) opinion polling is to some degree reflected in the Assembly election results, partly because voters really do not know what the London Assembly is for. If they did know it was supposed to be a body for oversight and holding to account, then of course voters would not put in place a Mayor for one party and an Assembly with so many members of the same party. They would in fact logically do the opposite because your own party is not really going to hold you to account in a meaningful sense.

    There is no doubt that when Peter Hulme Cross and I were elected to the London Assembly for UKIP in 2004, it was because the European Elections were on the same day and the story of the day was ‘UKIP and Kilroy’. Enough to get us two seats.

    UKIP is in fact in a very interesting position again because the Conservatives have clearly once again said one thing about EU control of the UK during elections to gain votes and done the opposite when in power (as they have done for 40 years of course – we’ll all learn one day)- the executive (which is what counts) is happy to hand over yet more powers to the EU and to support the ratchet envisaged by Lisbon (which guarantees automatic transfers of more powers in a way that individual member states cannot stop). As this occurs, so a percentage of Tories (and curiously LibDems in some parts of the country) transfer their votes and affection to UKIP. With the LibDems very weak and the Tories clearly seen as two faced on the EU, UKIP could indeed achieve a seat next year.

  2. I have an idea that: everyone realises – if nothing else from the party’s title – that UKIP is somewhat opposed to the EU (!), but how many realise just how comprehensive and eminently sensible the rest of the party’s policy document reads?
    Perhaps if we challenged the other parties directly, not from the prospect of their performance – all know how pathetic that has been, and is – but directly with quotes from OUR policy document, we might strike a realistic chord with many many more people?
    Give it a thought: choose a chapter at random, and see just how well it could work in this way!
    I feel that our representatives in debates and interviews are too easily sidelined into ‘the old stereotype’ they have come to know. We allow this stereotype to dominate peoples’ impression of the party, which is that, basically we are o ‘one shot’ party, when in reality NO OTHER PARTY will put their future intentions ON LINE as we do!

  3. Stephen, remember always though that the devil is in the detail. With regard to the London Mayor campaign, the party needs to realise that it will find it very difficult to fight its way through during the campaign itself. I have written on this site before about the fact that smaller parties are actually restricted from coverage by the BBC guidelines (which apply to all broadcasters) and that these are both unfair and a guarantee of free coverage worth millions of pounds to the “major” parties and restricted late night slots of seconds for parties like UKIP. And of course you are not allowed to buy coverage, unlike Obama who could raise a fortune and spend it! You need to get in there with London policies now, based upon properly costed ideas which strike a chord. UKIP is in a good position to do this and has the ability to do this – but try to avoid generalities like “working to reduce crime” (after all, none of the other parties are working to increase crime” – well not intentionally…).

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