The new COMRES poll suggests Livingstone has the support of just 47% of Londoners, while Johnson attracts the support of 53%.
The figures show recent headlines about tax have seriously damaged the former Mayor’s chances of returning to City Hall next month with 45% saying they are “less likely” to vote for him as a result.
In January Livingstone enjoyed a 2 point lead over Johnson in two separate polls, a lead widely attributed to his high profile fares campaign.
However claims that he’d minimised his tax liability and a row over remarks about the voting intentions of Jewish Londoners have since overshadowed the Labour campaign.
In February Johnson reversed Livingstone’s 2 point lead and last month took a convincing 8 point lead in a YouGov poll.
Today’s COMRES poll, though slightly reducing Johnson’s lead, would see the Mayor return to City Hall and a second defeat for Livingstone.
Although Livingstone leads Johnson on the issues of who is “the more serious candidate” and who “would deliver the most improvement to London’s public transport system”, just 24% expect him to win while 47% say the same of Johnson.
Mr Johnson also leads his predecessor on on who would secure the best deal from national Government, who would be best at tackling crime and who is most trusted to delver their promises.
Livingstone does however lead when Londoners are asked which of the front runners “understands the lives of people like me” and “is in touch with the needs of ordinary people”.
Today’s poll places Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddick on 6% with the Green party’s Jenny Jones narrowly behind on 4%.
Candidates for Mayor include Jenny Jones (Green party), Ken Livingstone (Labour), Lawrence Webb (UKIP) Boris Johnson (Conservative) and Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat). A full list of candidates can be found here.
Candidates standing as London Assembly constituency members can be found here. Candidates for the 11 Assembly London-wide seats can be found here.
Andrew Paul Bowden says
What are Boris’s opponents playing at? They have been delivered with a dream situation. An incumbent Mayor who has delivered very little, whose election pledges are flimsy and who seems more obsessed with a cable car than real issues.
They should be making mincemeat out of him. And they’re not. Four more years of Boris seems almost like a certainty then.
Damian Hockney says
Andrew, it’s a bit like the last General Election really in that regard – the incumbent having a generally lacklustre reputation but the challenger unable to really make headway…that Comres poll is interesting but it suffers (a little less that most, admittedly) from the usual problem of people saying they are “certain” to vote when clearly they are not. Will just over half the electorate turn out? Really? It has never happened before in this election. And there is a worry here for anyone interested in turnouts being high – in the past well over 60% have often said they will definitely turn out. Sometimes the figure of “intended” voters in London Mayor polls has been absurdly high. And on those occasions turnouts were in the 30s and 40s. Now if only half are saying they will definitely vote, does that mean correspondingly that a similar percentage of those to before who are saying “I will” have no intention? If that were the case, we are talking about a 30% turnout.
Robin says
Unfortunately even if British people lose ‘their jobs’ ‘their homes’ they will still vote for ”the Three blind mice”’ Ken has been promised Green and Lib-dums 2nd preference votes, ^million people are Not on UK electoral roll! London has ‘Fluid’ population, Each local election,i stood in 2002,2006,2010×2, GLA 2004, General election 2005,2010 the roll changes 105 annually,thats 50% change in 5 years, i cannot see this Coalition lasting till 2015, a pity UKIP have not Flagged up they have youngest team,and emales, changing ‘name’ is dangerous frippery, still ..hopefully ukip will at least have one representative in city hall.a Central London office would help…
Robin says
10%annual change in electoral roll,maybe more with tories attack on poor,and working poor, recession.