Last week this summer’s worst kept secret was out of the bag. Boris Johnson intends to run for Parliament in 2016, although he has no ambitions to be Prime Minister – possibly next summer’s worst kept secret.
The decision will prompt speculation and uncertainty at City Hall where the Mayor, like his predecessor, has imprinted his personality on the organisation.
Useful debate centres around possible successors and the real potential offered by a senior minister with direct experience of running London. Less useful is the accusation that the Mayor will become part time.
A recent poll showed that 60% of voters – and 59% of Londoners – think Boris should stand down from City Hall if he returns to Parliament. The result might have been very different if the question had mentioned the price tag for a by election – estimated at £12 million. Furthermore with the Mayor’s salary reduced by two thirds if Boris stays on for 2015/16 this starts to look like a good deal for the capital.
With the next London Election in May 2016 a by election winner in mid 2015 would scarcely have time to find their way to the 8th floor office and appoint their team before running into the purdah period that prohibits much of the activity of City Hall during the early 2016 campaign. The voters would have little to judge the new incumbent on before they were on the doorstep seeking a new mandate.
With local councils, the GLA, Europe and Westminster all operating on different electoral cycles the phenomenon of politicians holding two jobs during periods of overlap is here to stay and will affect all parties – particularly the smaller ones like UKIP and the Greens where the talent pool is more restricted.
Only PR style list systems enable post holders to be replaced by the next person down the ladder without a by election. Tottenham MP David Lammy took advantage of this when he stepped aside only two months after his election to the London Assembly to take up his Westminster seat.
However whilst politicians retain constituency links temporary dual mandates are here to stay. Ambitious office seekers who make cheap capital from them risk being damaged when their political boomerang returns.
Roger Evans is a Conservative member of the London Assembly representing the Havering and Redbridge constituency, and Chair of the Assembly.
You can follow him on Twitter or stay up to date with his work online at glaconservatives.co.uk
Damian Hockney says
It is inevitable that the existence of more elected bodies will lead to temporary situations of overlap. Roger Evans is correct: endless and selective attacks by all parties on individuals within other parties for engaging in the process will just bring yet further into disrepute the political class. It will give the impression that somehow this is another example of morally dubious behaviour or worse. It clearly is not, but there is some grounds for a belief that the proliferation of elected bodies – supposedly designed to help democracy – is in fact adding to confusion and is part of the reason for lower turnouts.
But that is another issue, and indeed if each party is choosing examples from the other side to beat them up over, then like the issues surrounding MPs expenses, there can be no winners. Just media coverage of more ‘impropriety and graft’, with confusions over earnings and expenses, and the accompanying selective media. It would be interesting to see a measured discussion of this issue somewhere in the press – interesting but unlikely when it is a useful cheap shot, when partisan coverage is now so ferocious and unrelenting, and when it is so handy as another way to attack the political process and all politicians.