Labour’s Ken Livingstone could be on course for the narrowest of victories and a return to City Hall according to the latest YouGov poll.
However today’s poll gives Livingstone a 2 point lead with 51% of the final vote when respondents were asked who they would back if they had to choose between Livingstone and Johnson.
YouGov’s Peter Kellner says: “Allowing for sampling error, the race is too close to call.”
Kellner notes that Livingstone’s lead is at least in part due to Johnson being “seen as increasingly out of touch.”
Of those polled, only 17% say the mayor ‘in touch with the concerns of ordinary people’, a fall from last June’s score of 20%.
With Livingstone’s score on the same quality rising from 37% to 40%, Kellner says: “he was in front; he is now out of sight.”
When voters are asked who “has achieved more” as Mayor, Livingstone scores 40%, a 10 point lead on his successor. Johnson also trails Livingstone on the quality of “Sticks to what he believes in”, scoring 33% to Livingstone’s 40%.
The Mayor’s late return to take control after August’s riots may also have hurt him. Just 11% say he is “good in a crisis, down slightly on June’s 12% and almost half Livingstone’s 19%.
However the Mayor is seen as more charismatic than Livingstone, with 48% naming this as a quality compared to just 14% of Livingstone.
Labour MP Tessa Jowell said today’s poll proved the contest was “is wide open” but cautioned “but there will be many more polls between now and the real poll on May 3rd.”