Today’s YouGov poll gives LibDem Brian Paddick the support of just 7% of Londoners.
If the polls don’t move considerably in his favour, he’s set to finish a long way short of the “best ever” result he promised party members in September.
A modest improvement on 7% would see the party just about win 2 seats (they currently have three) on the London Assembly, narrowly avoiding running mate Caroline Pidgeon sitting alone for four years.
But here’s something you may not know and which LibDems may find comforting – at each of the past three Greater London Authority elections their Assembly London-wide list has outpolled their Mayoral candidate.
In 2000 they received 14.8% and 4 London Assembly seats. At the same election Susan Kramer scored 11.87% of the Mayoral vote.
In 2004, MP Simon Hughes got 15.27% of the Mayoral 1st preferences, while the Assembly slate received 16.88% and 5 seats.
And while they lost 2 seats in 2008, the party’s list vote was 11.41% versus 9.80% for Mayoral hopeful Brian Paddick.
So, if the LibDem Assembly list manage to outpoll Paddick by around 3%, they’d probably keep their current three Assembly seats.
Pidgeon already has a higher profile than any other running mate in this or previous Assembly elections. The numbers above probably tell us why.